Hurricane Irene and Computer Modeling

We all know how 'really smart' consensus scientists are telling us that we're at doom's door with respect to climate change; they use really sophisticated computer models to predict that in 18 months to 7 years to 8 years to 1000 years (all depends on the alarmist idiot to whom you listen), we're all going to be swimming in melted ice water, because we keep burning fossil fuels--the byproduct of which heats up the planet (they say).

Now consider something more manageable--a single storm, with FAR FEWER variables than an entire climate system. Computer models can't even get a single storm right. And hurricane season predictions have been even less accurate. So, are you going to believe stupid models, because models are only as good as the people who create them. The entire climate of the planet is FAR MORE COMPLEX than a single hurricane. And if someone has an agenda to support their theory, it's very easy to design the model to do whatever you want it to.

Instead of admitting that they screwed up on the intensity and overhyped the devastation and doom with respect to Hurricane Irene (which the media did in spades, by the way), the alarmists have already started blaming global warming for Irene (which was a creme puff of a storm unlike its predicted 'catastrophic intensity'). Saw that one coming from a mile away!

While forecasters have gotten better at estimating the trajectories of storms because the winds propelling them, known as steering currents, have gotten easier to predict with computer models, projecting intensity is driven by dozens of variables that make modeling more difficult, Clark said.

[From Irene Forecasters Missed Storm’s Intensity While Correctly Predicting Path - Bloomberg]

2010 Cyclone Season Marks 33-Year LOW

Ever since Katrina in 2005 (a devastating hurricane season for sure), climatologists and various authorities on tropical weather have predicted "stronger than average" hurricane seasons. While the Atlantic season did appear active this year, no major storms hit the United States, even though there have been no shortage of cyclonic doom predictions since Katrina.

AccuWeather predicted the United States would be hit by five named storms in 2010; it didn't happen. And AccuWeather is one of these groups that peddles global warming nonsense. Previous seasonal predictions since 2005 have also failed to materialize.

And the oft blamed culprit for these dire predictions that don't materialize? You guessed it: manmade global warming.

The only problem with these silly (failed) predictions is that Mother Nature didn't cooperate, once again proving that our climate is enormously complex and still capable of baffling the so-called smartest among us.

Update: Current Year-to-Date analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) AND Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global inactivity is at 33-year lows and historical where Typhoons form in the Western Pacific.

While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows! In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the lowest seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal*. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. See figure below for visual evidence of the past 40-years of tropical cyclone activity.

[From coaps.fsu.edu | Ryan Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update]

GASP!: Obama's Energy Secretary Predicts Certain Doom

Well, Secretary Steven Chu has jumped on the goofball bandwagon along with Al Gore, Dr. Hansen, and Prince Charles. They’re all part of the same cult—the Cult of Global Warming Doom. And why? Well, there are currently substantial barriers to the policies they want to enact (like public doubt), and public fear is the only way these Draconian measures will happen—public fear which can drive political action.

Please read the last three paragraphs I included from the article; they contain the only responses really needed for this idiotic hogwash. Just remember: Experienced, educated weather forecasters can’t ACCURATELY predict what the weather will be like five days from today. Yet, these climate alarmists and opportunists have been deemed so smart (with their human-made computer models) that we’re to believe them when they say what our worldwide climate will be 100 years from now.

PUH-LEAAZZZEEEE!!!! The climate is far more complex than mere weather—thousands of additional variables, both known and unknown. More fear to be found in the GASP! series and Dr. Brignell’s warmlist.

Energy Secretary Offers Dire Global Warming Prediction

Speaking at the Summit of the Americas in the Carribean nation of Trinidad and Tobago, Steven Chu says some islands could disappear if water levels rise as a result of greenhouse-gas induced climate change.

PORT-OF-SPAIN, Trinidad and Tobago -- Caribbean nations face "very, very scary" rises in sea level and intensifying hurricanes, and Florida, Louisiana and even northern California could be overrun with rising water levels due to global warming triggered by carbon-based greenhouse gases, Energy Secretary Steven Chu said Saturday.

Chu's comments followed meetings with environmental ministers attending the fifth Summit of the Americas. He did not shy away from the most perilous predictions about the potential effects of global warming.

He said global temperatures have already risen by 0.8 degree Centigrade, that another 1 degree increase was certain to occur and "there's a reasonable probability we can go above 4 degrees Centigrade to 5 and 6 more."

Chu painted a dire picture of the implications.

***

"Secretary Chu's assertions on sea level rise and hurricanes are quite simply being proven wrong by the latest climate data. As the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute reported in December 12, 2008: There is 'no evidence for accelerated sea-level rise.'"

Morano said hurricane activity levels in both hemispheres of the globe are at 30 years lows and hurricane experts like MIT's Kerry Emanuel and Tom Knutson of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration "are now backing off their previous dire predictions.”

He said Chu is out of date on the science and is promoting unverified and alarming predictions that have already been proven contrary.

Forecasters: It's cold now but will be warm later

Forecasters said the same thing about last year's record cold winter (i.e., it was only going to be briefly cold--ahem, WRONG!).

Review the posts here, here, and here (among others talking about last year's winter). We were also told, insanely, that the cold weather we were seeing was caused by global warming! Then La Nina and El Nino were used as excuses to explain away the record-setting cold we've seen, which runs empirically counter to the entire global warming theory. Again and again, climate predictions--from higher temperatures to increased hurricanes--have continually refused to materialize. Can you expect this prediction to be any different than the others? I PREDICT NO!

Clearly, it's uncomfortable for the believers and alarmists in the media to keep seeing these low temperatures that cast doubt on all the brainwashing in which they've engaged.

Cold start to winter will warm, forecasters say - USATODAY.com:

Weather forecasters are predicting a colder-than-normal start to winter in the eastern part of the United States.

The season overall will be warmer than normal in the Southwest, South and parts of the Midwest, according to independent forecasters.

"It's going to be an aggressive start," said Ken Reeves, director of forecasting at Accuweather.com.

"What's really going to stand out for a lot of people is the immediate slap in the face of what will be a rather cold December, especially in the eastern third of the nation," Reeves said.

***

Despite the early cold, Ed O'Lenic, a senior meteorologist and chief of the climate operations branch at the Climate Prediction Center, said he believes this winter will be warmer than the average over the past 30 years.

Anthony Barnston, director of forecasting at Columbia University's International Research Institute in New York, said a lessening of La Niña could result in a warmer winter.

Revised Hurricane Season

Okay, I respect Dr. Gray for his global warming skepticism, but what he's doing here with the hurricane forecast is just revisionism--which is what the global warming phonies do (climate revisionism). When your predictions are going south, just find a way to make them right by revising what you said initially. Then you can never be wrong. In the case of global warming, you can still believe in the BS because it’s just “being masked” by cooling. LOL!

One thing is certain: The global warming alarmists will love this new forecast, because if it pans out they’ll be able to claim that this is more empirical evidence of global warming (while they ignore or denigrate contrary empirical evidence).

Contrary empirical evidence? When alarmists tell us that we can't use a mean temperature drop over one season (or even over the past ten years) to say that global warming is nonexistent, that's called dismissing empirical evidence. However, note how quickly they see a single cyclone or group of tornados (or anything else deemed anomalous) and claim that global warming was the cause? If they site empirical data, it's okay. If we realists do it, they say that we can't claim that against "the long-term average." "Long-term" in this case means the statistically non-significant period of roughly thirty years between 1970 and 2000. We've addressed how statistically stupid that is on here many times.

Colorado State Team Increases Hurricane Predictions:

The hurricane research team at Colorado State University increased the number of storms expected to form in the Atlantic Tuesday, predicting a total of 17 named storms.

The revised predictions were made based on warm sea surface temperatures and low sea level pressure over the tropical Atlantic Ocean in June and July as well as an active early season in the deep tropics, the university reported on its Web site.

Five named storms have already been observed this season, as Edouard hits Texas with high winds and a rising surf.

The team, formed by William Gray, whose predictions have not been accurate in recent years, predicted the six-month hurricane season would produce 15 storms, of which eight would be hurricanes, Reuters reported.

Floods clear throat, scream "global warming!"

Floods. They’ve happened since the beginnings of recorded human history, and I wager they occurred long before humans stood up and threw spears at their dinner. Floods DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF GLOBAL WARMING. What a huge pile of manure this stuff is! Who said that floods in the U.S. Midwest can ONLY occur every 500 years?! Where's the undeniable proof of that? Why are we putting our faith in these dumb soothsayers who imply they know the past and the future with regard to the Earth’s climate? Is a 5-day weather forecast ever accurate? Not often! Yet, we believe these people who say WITH ABSOLUTE AUTHORITY what our climate past has been and what our climate future will be.

Who said that floods in the U.S. Midwest can only occur every 500 years?! Where's the undeniable proof of that bold assertion?

By the way...THE CLIMATE IS NOT WARMING! Why isn’t the media stating this unequivocal truth based on scientific data??!! Never mind...I know the answer.

Midwest floods show signs of global warming

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Floods like those that inundated the U.S. Midwest are supposed to occur once every 500 years but this is the second since 1993, suggesting flawed forecasts that do not take global warming into account, conservation experts said on Tuesday.

"Although no single weather event can be attributed to global warming, it's critical to understand that a warming climate is supplying the very conditions that fuel these kinds of weather events," said Amanda Staudt, a climate scientist with the National Wildlife Federation.

Insurers use "global warming" to hike rates

Hurricanes. Al Gore was one of the original proponents of this flawed theory; Hurricanes aren’t spurned by global warming, especially since global warming is a stupid sham being propped up by nutjobs. Want proof? There’s a lot of anecdotal evidence that Al Gore is a lunatic, but if one looks here at my posts on hurricanes, you can find expert opinions and evidence that Mr. Gore has chosen to ignore since “horrible” hurricane seasons (post-Katrina) failed to materialize as predicted.

What have we heard on the U.S. coastlines since Hurricane Katrina, which Gore implied was fed by global warming in his stupid movie?

“Cricket, cricket!”

The AGW alarmist’s response to these subsequent “non-seasons” following continued predictions to the contrary?

“Cricket, cricket!”

What would be the outcry if there had been devastating storms since 2005? We all know the answer, because EVERYTHING IS CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING. The hurricane seasons continue to defy even Dr. Gray’s often-praised predictions, proving once again the arrogant fallibility of man in conducting prophecy on Mother Nature.

AGW becomes a convenient way to raise rates or eliminate hurricane insurance coverage within the insurance industry.

Cyclones are fed and strengthened in-part by warm oceans waters, but they originate from thunderstorms that are formed by contrasting temperature gradients (mixing of COLD AND HOT air masses). Note again—COLD AND HOT air coming together, not just HOT. The stronger the contrast between air masses, the stronger the resulting thunderstorms. I’m not even a meteorologist and I know this. Incidentally, tornados come from thunderstorms too, so they are also NOT CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING, even if Senator Kerry says they are (and he’s not a meteorologist either).

So, what’s happening now? What I told you about earlier. Those who jump on the AGW bandwagon are either blind, unthinking followers, looking to make a buck somehow, or they have some other personal agenda they’re keeping close to the vest. In this case, AGW becomes a convenient way to raise rates or eliminate hurricane insurance coverage within the insurance industry; it's simply profiteering. See? AGW solutions and adjustments will only harm the American consumer and hurt the economy, which Bill Clinton openly stated was necessary to “save the planet for our grandkids.” Give me a break!

Hurricane Watch: Insurers Criticized for New Rate Models | WSJ:

Scientists say the jury is still out on whether rising sea temperatures will cause more hurricanes to hit U.S. coastlines. Yet some insurance companies are boosting premiums based on assumptions that they will. Others are withdrawing from coastal communities altogether.

GASP!: Prince Charles predicts 18 months until doom

We had an entry earlier this year about Prince Charles and his “super-intelligent” pronouncements; it's obvious those incestuously-enlarged sound catchers of his are tuning in way too many cosmic rays, which are melting his brain.

Have you noticed how the media and concerned parties organize the global warming propaganda campaign?

They primarily use a two-pronged approach—indoctrination duality. The majority of articles focus on fear—scaring you to the point that you'll demand political action. Fear-inspiring articles describe endangered animals, flooded coastal cities, wars, impending cannibalism, increasing storms (and antithetically…greater droughts), melting polar ice, increased diseases, and so on. As a matter of fact, it's laughable to review the plethora of horrors already ascribed to global warming by the media and others.

The other AGW propaganda approach is to “educate” us on the things we do that are contributing to global warming. Most of these things we do, for which the media and hypocritical celebrities and politicians assail us, are related to affluence and capitalism—two currently unpopular American ideals. (Only socialist elites can be wealthy, because only they can utilize wealth RESPONSIBLY!) A recent example is obesity, but there are many other examples: SUVs, computers, cows (we omnivores raise them to eat, but they poot out a bunch of methane), air travel, old-fashioned light bulbs, toilet paper (Sheryl Crow later claimed it was all an elaborate joke used to inspire AGW discussion), and so on. In other words, oil is the fuel of capitalism, and capitalism is destroying the planet. Socialism is the only solution to save the earth, but don't think the socialists will suffer while you give up your creature comforts and pay more taxes.

Why do they use this indoctrination duality? We've discussed that thoroughly as well.

Predictions of worldwide doom are not new to the global warming era; such predictions go hand-in-hand with the history of man, and they've all been wrong thus far. Please review other articles here on this blog where we've had various soothsayers predict our demise at the hands of “anthropogenic global warming”: Al Gore's prediction gives us about 8 more years; the Brit Chicken Little gives us about 40 years; and a Nobel Dodo says we'll run out of atmosphere before we run out of oil.

And you can see what happened with global warming predictions this past year; we were supposed to have an awful, warm winter due to global warming! Instead, it was a record setting, cold winter that reversed “global warming” to 1930s levels (against the dubious baseline) and led to La Nina climate revisionism to explain away failed climate predictions. Now they tell us that La Nina will mask “global warming” for about 10 years. LOL! They must salvage what's left of their reputations and stop you believing sheep from backsliding and turning against the nonsense.

I live here in San Antonio. Four days ago, the forecasters predicted a beautiful, sunny Saturday for us with no precipitation. Guess what? It rained on Saturday, and I noticed they had “revised” their forecast that day. There wasn't much precipitation, but it rained, and it was completely overcast for the first part of the day; the forecast two to three days earlier was entirely WRONG. The smartest among us can't accurately predict our day-to-day weather more than a day or so out, yet many of us are true believers and give full buy-in when the “experts” tell us we'll all be done for in a certain amount of time UNLESS WE ACT NOW (and it's that “act now” part for which they really need you). Let's see…where else have I heard “act now”? Oh yes…infomercials and telemarketing! Talk about your purveyors of truth.

Prince Charles: Eighteen months to stop climate change disaster - Telegraph:

In one of his most out-spoken interventions in the climate change debate, he said a £15 billion annual programme was required to halt deforestation or the world would have to live with the dire consequences.

“We will end up seeing more drought and starvation on a grand scale. Weather patterns will become even more terrifying and there will be less and less rainfall,” he said.

“We are asking for something pretty dreadful unless we really understand the issues now and [the] urgency of them.” The Prince said the rainforests, which provide the “air conditioning system for the entire planet”, releasing water vapour and absorbing carbon, were being lost to poor farmers desperate to make a living.

Hurricanes "above average" this year

Here we go again. We’ve had “above average” hurricane forecasts over the past two years, and they were WRONG (and apparently Al Gore is wrong too)! Nothing against Dr. Gray, who is also a fellow global warming skeptic, but this proves a point. Forecasting anything associated with weather and climate accurately beyond a few days is an exercise in futility. This means you can ignore all those global warming doom-sayers who proclaim we’ll be extinct in 10 – 100 years (depends on which prophet you listen to).

Let’s see how accurate this hurricane forecast turns out to be; statistically speaking, if they keep saying we’ll have an “above average” cyclone season then they’ll eventually be correct just based on law-of-averages. Notice the safety of the prediction: “above average but not as strong as 2005.” As long as the season isn’t as slow as last year and fails to be as strong as 2005, they’ll be deemed right. So let’s mark it; the prediction is 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 hurricanes that are strong (>111 mph).

FOXNews.com - Forecasters Predict 'Well Above Average' Hurricane Activity for 2008 Season - Science News | Science & Technology | Technology News:

Fasten your seatbelts, it's gonna be a bumpy hurricane season.

That's the latest word from a team of Colorado State University forecasters, who predict the nation's Atlantic coast will experience a hurricane season "well above average."

"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said William Gray, who heads the university's forecast team.

What they predicted; what actually happened

Similar to the wrong-headed, dire hurricane predictions over the past few years (where AGW was going to dissolve the coastline through high-powered cyclones), NOAA forecasters (also fueled by the global warming frenzy) forecasted a "warm winter" just a few months ago...

Warm Winter Predicted For United States:

ScienceDaily (Oct. 11, 2007) — NOAA forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across already drought-stricken parts of the Southwest and Southeast in its winter outlook for the United States, announced at the 2007-2008 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, D.C October 9, 2007.

Now, let's review a small sample of what actually happened (because the winter harshness was extensive):

NOAA: Coolest Winter Since 2001 for U.S., Globe :

The average temperature across both the contiguous U.S. and the globe during climatological winter (December 2007-February 2008) was the coolest since 2001, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. In terms of winter precipitation, Pacific storms, bringing heavy precipitation to large parts of the West, produced high snowpack that will provide welcome runoff this spring.

• Now, reputations fall like dominoes
• Arctic = Melting; North Da-ka-ka-kota = FREEZING
• Iowa snow 22 inches ABOVE NORMAL
• Recent climate-related headlines

Surprise, surprise! Global warming completely reversed in one year. The climate CHANGES all the time--go figure! It’s not “climate change”…it’s the changing climate. The climate can not be expressed as a flat-line graph; it goes up and down and has done so for 4.5 billion years. Notice this piece about snow cover at the bottom:

While there has been little trend in snow cover extent during the winter season since records began in the late 1960s, spring snow cover extent has been sharply lower in the past two decades as global temperatures have increased.

What they’re letting out of the bag here (reluctantly) is that all the hoopla about “loss of snow cover and ice” is based on a baseline measurement range that is not yet 50 years in width. Do you realize how SHORT that period of time is when stacked against the Earth’s estimated life of 4.5 billion years???!!! Any medical research with such shady statistics would be laughed at roundly by scientists, and no treatments would ever result from such garbage research.

As Newsbusters correctly points out:

Hmmm. These guys can't accurately predict climate conditions two months out, but we should radically alter our economy based on their forecasts decades into the future?

Recent climate-related headlines

Just a few more recent, telling articles that relate to climate change, packaged together here for your reading pleasure.

China battles "coldest winter in 100 years"| Reuters:

CHENZHOU, China, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Millions remained stranded in China on Monday ahead of the biggest holiday of the year as parts of the country suffered their coldest winter in a century.

Freezing weather has killed scores of people and left travellers stranded before the Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival -- the only opportunity many people have to take a holiday all year.

J'lem experiences second snow of '08 | Jerusalem Post :

Dozens of snowplows and tractors, and 34 tons of salt stood ready in Jerusalem to battle the snowstorm that began on Monday night, which is the second one to blanket the capital this year.

By evening the bright sunshine had turned into driving rain and strong winds. A bit after dark, the flakes began falling. Forecasters said that snow could cover areas as far south as Mitzpe Ramon in the Negev.

The Associated Press: 3 Dead As Snow Hits Texas Panhandle:

LUBBOCK, Texas (AP) — A snowstorm hit the Texas Panhandle early Thursday, leaving at least three people dead and causing a 40-vehicle pileup that shut down an interstate for several hours, officials said.

One person was killed and at least two were injured in the pileup caused by blowing snow that limited visibility and slick, icy spots that made Interstate 40 treacherous, Texas Department of Public Safety Trooper Wayne Beighle said.

The Associated Press: Warmer Atlantic Worsens Hurricanes:

WASHINGTON (AP) — When the water in the hurricane breeding grounds of the Atlantic warms one degree in the dead of summer, overall hurricane activity jumps by half, according to a new study.

Scientists have long known that hurricanes get their enormous energy from warm waters, so the warmer the water, the more fuel a storm has to either start up or get stronger. The study calculates how much storm frequency and strength is due to warmer sea water, said author Mark Saunders, professor of climate prediction at the University College London.

Right! That's why the past few hurricane seasons (predicted to be looming disasters) have been a complete bust. Drop the Al Gore schtick already. An article a few days earlier said this...

The Associated Press: Forecasters Debate Hurricanes, Warming:

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — A lively and sometimes scrappy debate on whether global warming is fueling bigger and nastier hurricanes like Katrina is adding an edge to a gathering of forecasters here.

The venue for the 88th annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society could not have been more conducive to the discussion: The Ernest N. Morial Convention Center is where thousands of people waited for days during the storm to be evacuated from a city drowning in water and misery.

'60 Minutes' Preempted This Sunday for Global Warming Hysteria | NewsBusters.org:

This teaser raises many important questions. For instance, will even one of the over 400 scientists that don't believe man is responsible for global warming be interviewed by Pelley? Or, will he exclusively talk to folks that are involved in advancing this yet unproven theory?

Will any of the scientific studies concerning historical ice levels in the Arctic and the Antarctic be sited, or just the satellite data for the past thirty years?

Assuming the top NASA scientist Pelley will be speaking to is the controversial head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies James Hansen, will he be asked about his connection to George Soros? Or that the GISS predicted an ice age back in 1971? Or that Hansen's organization made a huge error in calculating temperatures this decade that was uncovered by Climate Audit's Stephen McIntyre?

Chinese weather forecasting or indoctrination?

Perhaps it's not their weather forecasting that's the problem. Maybe it's that all the foreign news agencies have been shoving the impossibility of this winter down their throats, which is still happening. No matter what the media tells you, this has been A RECORD SETTING WINTER in many parts of the world.

AFP: China weather forecasters 10 years behind foreigners: report:

BEIJING (AFP) — China's meteorologists have admitted being 10 years behind world standards, a report said Friday, after a surprise spell of freezing winter weather paralysed the country and killed more than 100 people.

Of course it's SURPRISING. It should be impossible to have such cold with the Earth melting and all due to our greenhouse gases.