Sunday, August 28, 2011

Hurricane Irene and Computer Modeling

We all know how 'really smart' consensus scientists are telling us that we're at doom's door with respect to climate change; they use really sophisticated computer models to predict that in 18 months to 7 years to 8 years to 1000 years (all depends on the alarmist idiot to whom you listen), we're all going to be swimming in melted ice water, because we keep burning fossil fuels--the byproduct of which heats up the planet (they say).

Now consider something more manageable--a single storm, with FAR FEWER variables than an entire climate system. Computer models can't even get a single storm right. And hurricane season predictions have been even less accurate. So, are you going to believe stupid models, because models are only as good as the people who create them. The entire climate of the planet is FAR MORE COMPLEX than a single hurricane. And if someone has an agenda to support their theory, it's very easy to design the model to do whatever you want it to.

Instead of admitting that they screwed up on the intensity and overhyped the devastation and doom with respect to Hurricane Irene (which the media did in spades, by the way), the alarmists have already started blaming global warming for Irene (which was a creme puff of a storm unlike its predicted 'catastrophic intensity'). Saw that one coming from a mile away!

While forecasters have gotten better at estimating the trajectories of storms because the winds propelling them, known as steering currents, have gotten easier to predict with computer models, projecting intensity is driven by dozens of variables that make modeling more difficult, Clark said.

[From Irene Forecasters Missed Storm’s Intensity While Correctly Predicting Path - Bloomberg]