Sunday, January 17, 2010

Speaking of Bad Computer Models

I was just having a discussion with a global warming believer about climate computer models in the comments of an earlier blog post (see Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit); this is a timely story. Remember, models don't mean a damn thing if they're programmed wrong or are fed bad data: Garbage-in equals garbage-out. That's why computer models that predict hurricane strength and likely landfall locations are filled with uncertainty until just before the storms make landfall. And a hurricane--complicated though it is--pales compared to the complexity of the worldwide climate. This is also why we still can't accurately forecast local weather more than 5-days out (and those forecasts are often wrong). Plus, a computer model--just like statistics--can be made to paint any picture in the hands of a clever, devious scientist.

Computer models that predict climatic warming due to manmade gas emissions are WRONG, and given the political environment today, likely VERY BIASED and therefore UNBELIEVABLE.

A BBC weather forecaster has suggested that the Met Office's super-computer has a 'warm bias' which has stopped it predicting bitterly cold spells like the one we have just endured.

Paul Hudson said the error may have crept into the computer's climate model as a result of successive years of milder weather.

His claim was rejected by the Met Office but other experts said there could be flaws in the system, which was first developed 50 years ago.

[From Met Office computer accused of 'warm bias' by BBC weatherman | Mail Online]