More Hurricane Predictions

We’ve seen how these hurricane predictions have turned out over the past few years...not very good. They’re just like the overall climate predictions we’ve seen...full of crap.

MIAMI -- AccuWeather.com said Wednesday it expects five hurricanes to hit the U.S. coast in the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season, which begins on the first day in June, Reuters reported.

The private weather forecaster predicts at least two of them will be major hurricanes.

"The forecast is calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline," AccuWeather.com said, according to Reuters.

[From FOXNews.com - U.S. to See More Hurricanes in 2010 ]

Cyclone Activity at 30-year Low: Revisionist Excuse

So much for Al Gore's stupid-assed proselytizing. Even the esteemed Dr. Gray has been getting it wrong (see how predictions about weather and climate go?). But this is from FSU, so there's, of course, the obligatory climate revisionism (it's not a lack of global warming folks...it's that the warming is being 'masked' by La Nina). LOL!

North Atlantic Hurricane Season slowest since 1997 -- Figure

Global and Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity remains near 30-year historical lows -- three years in a row now of considerably below-average activity globally. -- Figure

[From coaps.fsu.edu | Ryan Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update : PhD Candidate Meteorology]

Another Senator Steps In Pile of Poop

Here's another "brilliant" legislator showing why she should stick to things like screwing up health care. The whole hurricane-warming myth has even been debunked by NOAA and Dr. Gray, and all recent hurricane seasons have been weak while the predictions were dire.

Yet, these folks can't help but blame normal weather occurrences--even those that haven't manifested--on a lie, because propping up the myth will bear some benefit. This time it's not Gore or Kerry...it's Senator Debbie Stabenow (D., Mich.). She must be right, because she "feels it when she's flying." That's real science, folks.

Meanwhile, empirical evidence shows that Michigan--her home state--has had a record COLD July. She must not feel that because she's in D.C., surrounded by a bunch of hot air from her fellow global warming cult members.

"Climate change is very real," she confessed as she embraced cap and trade's massive tax increase on Michigan industry - at the same time claiming, against all the evidence, that it would not lead to an increase in manufacturing costs or energy prices. "Global warming creates volatility. I feel it when I'm flying. The storms are more volatile. We are paying the price in more hurricanes and tornadoes."

[From DETNEWS | Weblogs | Henry Payne's Sketchbook]

Now, Quieter Hurricane Season Predicted

I admire Dr. Gray, because he's a global warming skeptic, but he's unwittingly proving my point about scientists and their predictions about our complex climate systems. This, of course, involves El Nino again. But review the last few years where busy hurricane seasons were predicted, only to remain in the tepid and weak.

The liberal enviro-psychos love to blames hurricanes on global warming, but hurricanes haven't really showed up since Katrina as predicted. Al Gore heavily implied in his dumb Power Point movie that Katrina was caused by global warming. We can see where that little bit of empirical pootage ended up.

Frankly, Dr. Gray is considered the foremost hurricane expert, but his predictions have been lackluster in the last several years. This should give everyone pause about the scientists predicting global warming doom one-hundred years into the future; it should definitely make you question idiots like Prince Charles and Al Gore, two NON-SCIENTISTS who issue climate predictions all the time.

MIAMI (AFP) - Weather experts on Wednesday reduced the number of projected hurricanes in the north Atlantic this season to four, two of them major hurricanes with winds above 178 kilometers (111 miles) per hour.

After one of the calmest starts to the hurricane season in a decade, the experts from Colorado State University said the development of an El Nino effect in the Pacific had caused them to scale back their projections for the Atlantic.

[From Experts predict quieter Atlantic hurricane season - Yahoo!7 News]

Atlantic Hurricane Season "Withers on the Vine"

Back in April 2008, Dr. Gray (a well-known global warming SKEPTIC), issued his famous hurricane season forecast; we were supposed to have a season "well above average." At the beginning of August 2008, the forecasters decided to "revise" their predictions to reflect an even more active season. I proposed back in April waiting to see how accurate these predictions would end up and whether they would be like a lot the global warming predictions that have come and gone so far AND BEEN WRONG!

So what happened? Not very much. The season did spike up a little higher than last year, but it was no where near the 2005 season. Once again, global warming failed to cause the cyclonic disaster typically predicted by global warming alarmists like Al Gore, even though NOAA has already discredited that theory.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2008 Withers on the Vine « Climate Audit:

Now, to answer the question: how active was the 2008 hurricane season, we need to define climatology. This is where the tricksters can play pranks on the public. Where is the beginning point of the analysis? How well do we trust the frequency and the estimated intensities of each storm? What metric do we use – number of tropical storms, number of hurricanes, ACE (accumulated cyclone energy), Power Dissipation, or perhaps some complicated statistical measure? All of these questions are entangled in the debate surrounding whether anthropogenic climate change is indeed a modulating influence upon current and future Atlantic hurricane activity.

***

Final verdict: When encapsulated in the recent active period in North Atlantic activity (1995-2007), 2008 experienced normal or expected activity as measured by ACE.

TS Fay caused by AGW!

Okay, let me beat them to the punch! Remember, you heard it here first...Tropical Storm (likely soon-to-be hurricane) Fay is being driven by evil poot gases that result from humankind's love for Western capitalism. Our own greedy transgressions are punishing us! Now the lefties can relax; I put out the press release first.

If it's cold out in the summer, that means nothing; if there's a hurricane or a tornado outbreak, that means there's warming! Get the picture?!!

Revised Hurricane Season

Okay, I respect Dr. Gray for his global warming skepticism, but what he's doing here with the hurricane forecast is just revisionism--which is what the global warming phonies do (climate revisionism). When your predictions are going south, just find a way to make them right by revising what you said initially. Then you can never be wrong. In the case of global warming, you can still believe in the BS because it’s just “being masked” by cooling. LOL!

One thing is certain: The global warming alarmists will love this new forecast, because if it pans out they’ll be able to claim that this is more empirical evidence of global warming (while they ignore or denigrate contrary empirical evidence).

Contrary empirical evidence? When alarmists tell us that we can't use a mean temperature drop over one season (or even over the past ten years) to say that global warming is nonexistent, that's called dismissing empirical evidence. However, note how quickly they see a single cyclone or group of tornados (or anything else deemed anomalous) and claim that global warming was the cause? If they site empirical data, it's okay. If we realists do it, they say that we can't claim that against "the long-term average." "Long-term" in this case means the statistically non-significant period of roughly thirty years between 1970 and 2000. We've addressed how statistically stupid that is on here many times.

Colorado State Team Increases Hurricane Predictions:

The hurricane research team at Colorado State University increased the number of storms expected to form in the Atlantic Tuesday, predicting a total of 17 named storms.

The revised predictions were made based on warm sea surface temperatures and low sea level pressure over the tropical Atlantic Ocean in June and July as well as an active early season in the deep tropics, the university reported on its Web site.

Five named storms have already been observed this season, as Edouard hits Texas with high winds and a rising surf.

The team, formed by William Gray, whose predictions have not been accurate in recent years, predicted the six-month hurricane season would produce 15 storms, of which eight would be hurricanes, Reuters reported.

Scientists: Are they corruptible?

The angle of the association here to global warming is actually obvious if you think about it. I've written about it many times in this blog.

We skeptics and climate realists are told to more or less "shut up" (to shut off debate) when presenting calm, deliberate, scientific points and data that counter the pseudo-scientific basis of the global warming scam; the authority used to dismiss skeptics and turn off debate--even highly-intelligent, tenured atmospheric scientists--as outliers is based on a politically- and profit-driven "consensus."

The "consensus" is very questionable, since many once part of the consensus are abandoning their old theories, and we know of at least 31,000 scientists who are brave enough to declare AGW a huge lie.

One must ask: Can scientists have corrupt motivations, and can they internally justify their actions to the point of actually harming mankind? Dr. Ivins here apparently (and allegedly) did just that and only killed himself after it was apparent he was going to be held to account.

Now, I know alarmists will attempt to say that this is what denying, outlying, "flat-earth" scientists do, but they never think to question the authoritative basis of their own beliefs--authorities like Al Gore, Heidi Cullen, Barbara Boxer, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Prince Charles, James Hansen, Bill Nye, and the list goes on. These names are seen time-and-again in the media to offset the credentials of actual climatologists who question--quite sanely--the scientific basis of the global warming cult; climatologists such as Dr. Roy Spencer (UAH and formerly with NASA), Dr. William Gray (CSU) and Dr. Richard Lindzen (MIT) make sensical, well-thought counter-arguments to the alarmism, but the usual tactic from the contrary side is to "name call" and denigrate with PC terminology designed to close off debate to the public's awareness (words like "denier," "consensus," and "IPCC").

Anthrax scientist Bruce Ivins stood to benefit from a panic - Los Angeles Times:

Bruce E. Ivins, the government biodefense scientist linked to the deadly anthrax mailings of 2001, stood to gain financially from massive federal spending in the fear-filled aftermath of those killings, the Los Angeles Times has learned.

Ivins is listed as a co-inventor on two patents for a genetically engineered anthrax vaccine, federal records show. Separately, Ivins also is listed as a co-inventor on an application to patent an additive for various biodefense vaccines.

Insurers use "global warming" to hike rates

Hurricanes. Al Gore was one of the original proponents of this flawed theory; Hurricanes aren’t spurned by global warming, especially since global warming is a stupid sham being propped up by nutjobs. Want proof? There’s a lot of anecdotal evidence that Al Gore is a lunatic, but if one looks here at my posts on hurricanes, you can find expert opinions and evidence that Mr. Gore has chosen to ignore since “horrible” hurricane seasons (post-Katrina) failed to materialize as predicted.

What have we heard on the U.S. coastlines since Hurricane Katrina, which Gore implied was fed by global warming in his stupid movie?

“Cricket, cricket!”

The AGW alarmist’s response to these subsequent “non-seasons” following continued predictions to the contrary?

“Cricket, cricket!”

What would be the outcry if there had been devastating storms since 2005? We all know the answer, because EVERYTHING IS CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING. The hurricane seasons continue to defy even Dr. Gray’s often-praised predictions, proving once again the arrogant fallibility of man in conducting prophecy on Mother Nature.

AGW becomes a convenient way to raise rates or eliminate hurricane insurance coverage within the insurance industry.

Cyclones are fed and strengthened in-part by warm oceans waters, but they originate from thunderstorms that are formed by contrasting temperature gradients (mixing of COLD AND HOT air masses). Note again—COLD AND HOT air coming together, not just HOT. The stronger the contrast between air masses, the stronger the resulting thunderstorms. I’m not even a meteorologist and I know this. Incidentally, tornados come from thunderstorms too, so they are also NOT CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING, even if Senator Kerry says they are (and he’s not a meteorologist either).

So, what’s happening now? What I told you about earlier. Those who jump on the AGW bandwagon are either blind, unthinking followers, looking to make a buck somehow, or they have some other personal agenda they’re keeping close to the vest. In this case, AGW becomes a convenient way to raise rates or eliminate hurricane insurance coverage within the insurance industry; it's simply profiteering. See? AGW solutions and adjustments will only harm the American consumer and hurt the economy, which Bill Clinton openly stated was necessary to “save the planet for our grandkids.” Give me a break!

Hurricane Watch: Insurers Criticized for New Rate Models | WSJ:

Scientists say the jury is still out on whether rising sea temperatures will cause more hurricanes to hit U.S. coastlines. Yet some insurance companies are boosting premiums based on assumptions that they will. Others are withdrawing from coastal communities altogether.

Did Dr. Gray and CSU reach compromise on warming lie?

So, it sounds to me as if CSU had initially intimidated Dr. Gray, famed hurricane forecaster, for speaking his mind about the global warming lie, but it appears they've come to some behind-the-scenes agreement that requires him to keep his mouth shut about the intimidation he suffered. Is the quid pro quo that he keeps his position and continues his work?

I'm glad there are scientists like Dr. Gray, Dr. Christy, Dr. Reiter, and Dr. Lindzen out there who are brave enough to speak up about the AGW myth. Remember...Galileo was eventually silenced as well by religious authorities; now, the new religion is global warming, and its authorities are attempting to silence the few, brave voices willing to state the truth--global warming is one of the greatest scams (maybe the greatest in history) ever perpetrated on mankind; it must be the greatest in history, because it's a worldwide phenomenon of deceit, thanks to the flow of misinformation through the Internet and other electronic media venues.

Hurricane Expert Says His Global Warming Views Haven't Affected University's Support

William Gray, a professor emeritus at Colorado State, is a skeptic of man-made global warming and once said that pro-global warming scientists are "brainwashing our children." An article Monday by the Houston Chronicle that was cited by FOX News claimed that Gray's views had prompted the university to stop promoting his renowned annual North Atlantic hurricane forecasts. The Chronicle quoted a memo Gray sent the university last year accusing it of trying to stifle his views on global warming, but Gray issued a statement Tuesday saying that his status at the university hadn't changed.

Hurricanes "above average" this year

Here we go again. We’ve had “above average” hurricane forecasts over the past two years, and they were WRONG (and apparently Al Gore is wrong too)! Nothing against Dr. Gray, who is also a fellow global warming skeptic, but this proves a point. Forecasting anything associated with weather and climate accurately beyond a few days is an exercise in futility. This means you can ignore all those global warming doom-sayers who proclaim we’ll be extinct in 10 – 100 years (depends on which prophet you listen to).

Let’s see how accurate this hurricane forecast turns out to be; statistically speaking, if they keep saying we’ll have an “above average” cyclone season then they’ll eventually be correct just based on law-of-averages. Notice the safety of the prediction: “above average but not as strong as 2005.” As long as the season isn’t as slow as last year and fails to be as strong as 2005, they’ll be deemed right. So let’s mark it; the prediction is 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 hurricanes that are strong (>111 mph).

FOXNews.com - Forecasters Predict 'Well Above Average' Hurricane Activity for 2008 Season - Science News | Science & Technology | Technology News:

Fasten your seatbelts, it's gonna be a bumpy hurricane season.

That's the latest word from a team of Colorado State University forecasters, who predict the nation's Atlantic coast will experience a hurricane season "well above average."

"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said William Gray, who heads the university's forecast team.

IPCC scientists reject AGW theory

I love it when former U.N. IPCC scientists denounce the Frankenstein they helped to create.

The new "inconvenient truth" that dares not say its name:

Hundreds of climate experts from around the world at the New York conference issued a "Manhattan Declaration," whose title gets right to the bottom line: Nature, not Human activity, Rules the Climate.

Among those at the gathering was former UN scientist (he quit the UN group in disgust) Dr. Paul Reiter of the Pasteur Institute in Paris. Dr. Reiter told the attendees that, "[a]s far as the science being 'settled,' I think that is an obscenity. The fact is the science is being distorted by those who are not scientists."

Added famed hurricane expert and meteorologist Dr. William Gray: "There are a lot of skeptics out there, all over the U.S. and the rest of the world. [Global warming] has been over-hyped tremendously; most of the climate change we have seen is largely natural. I think we are brainwashing our children terribly."

There are other IPCC scientists who have rejected their part in the farce. Let's take John Christy.

My Nobel Moment - WSJ.com:

I've had a lot of fun recently with my tiny (and unofficial) slice of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But, though I was one of thousands of IPCC participants, I don't think I will add "0.0001 Nobel Laureate" to my resume.

The other half of the prize was awarded to former Vice President Al Gore, whose carbon footprint would stomp my neighborhood flat. But that's another story.

I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time.

Al Gore's response to Dr. Christy? We deniers are "outliers" and "flat earthers." Gore thinks we need MORE propaganda to brainwash you sheep out there into believing his little fart ball called global warming.

Al Gore, Comedian: Media's Global-Warming Coverage Too Balanced | NewsBusters.org:

AL GORE: Well, he's an outlier. He no longer belongs to the IPCC, and he is way outside the scientific consensus. But Meredith, part of the challenge the news media has had in covering this story is the old habit of taking the "on the one hand, on the other hand" approach. There are still people who believe that the earth is flat. But when you're reporting on a story like the one you're covering today, where you have people all around the world, you don't take, you don't search out, for someone who still believes the earth is flat and give them equal time. And the reason the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, the thousands of scientists who make up that group, have for almost twenty years now created a very strong scientific consensus, that is as strong a consensus as you'll ever see in science, that the climate crisis is real, human beings are responsible for it, the results will be very bad for the United States and for the entire world community, all human beings, unless we do something about it. And there is still time to solve it.