Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Atlantic Hurricane Season "Withers on the Vine"

Back in April 2008, Dr. Gray (a well-known global warming SKEPTIC), issued his famous hurricane season forecast; we were supposed to have a season "well above average." At the beginning of August 2008, the forecasters decided to "revise" their predictions to reflect an even more active season. I proposed back in April waiting to see how accurate these predictions would end up and whether they would be like a lot the global warming predictions that have come and gone so far AND BEEN WRONG!

So what happened? Not very much. The season did spike up a little higher than last year, but it was no where near the 2005 season. Once again, global warming failed to cause the cyclonic disaster typically predicted by global warming alarmists like Al Gore, even though NOAA has already discredited that theory.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2008 Withers on the Vine « Climate Audit:

Now, to answer the question: how active was the 2008 hurricane season, we need to define climatology. This is where the tricksters can play pranks on the public. Where is the beginning point of the analysis? How well do we trust the frequency and the estimated intensities of each storm? What metric do we use – number of tropical storms, number of hurricanes, ACE (accumulated cyclone energy), Power Dissipation, or perhaps some complicated statistical measure? All of these questions are entangled in the debate surrounding whether anthropogenic climate change is indeed a modulating influence upon current and future Atlantic hurricane activity.


Final verdict: When encapsulated in the recent active period in North Atlantic activity (1995-2007), 2008 experienced normal or expected activity as measured by ACE.

1 comment:


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