Saturday, April 26, 2008

Hurricanes "above average" this year

Here we go again. We’ve had “above average” hurricane forecasts over the past two years, and they were WRONG (and apparently Al Gore is wrong too)! Nothing against Dr. Gray, who is also a fellow global warming skeptic, but this proves a point. Forecasting anything associated with weather and climate accurately beyond a few days is an exercise in futility. This means you can ignore all those global warming doom-sayers who proclaim we’ll be extinct in 10 – 100 years (depends on which prophet you listen to).

Let’s see how accurate this hurricane forecast turns out to be; statistically speaking, if they keep saying we’ll have an “above average” cyclone season then they’ll eventually be correct just based on law-of-averages. Notice the safety of the prediction: “above average but not as strong as 2005.” As long as the season isn’t as slow as last year and fails to be as strong as 2005, they’ll be deemed right. So let’s mark it; the prediction is 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 hurricanes that are strong (>111 mph). - Forecasters Predict 'Well Above Average' Hurricane Activity for 2008 Season - Science News | Science & Technology | Technology News:

Fasten your seatbelts, it's gonna be a bumpy hurricane season.

That's the latest word from a team of Colorado State University forecasters, who predict the nation's Atlantic coast will experience a hurricane season "well above average."

"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said William Gray, who heads the university's forecast team.

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