Thursday, October 7, 2010

2010 Cyclone Season Marks 33-Year LOW

Ever since Katrina in 2005 (a devastating hurricane season for sure), climatologists and various authorities on tropical weather have predicted "stronger than average" hurricane seasons. While the Atlantic season did appear active this year, no major storms hit the United States, even though there have been no shortage of cyclonic doom predictions since Katrina.

AccuWeather predicted the United States would be hit by five named storms in 2010; it didn't happen. And AccuWeather is one of these groups that peddles global warming nonsense. Previous seasonal predictions since 2005 have also failed to materialize.

And the oft blamed culprit for these dire predictions that don't materialize? You guessed it: manmade global warming.

The only problem with these silly (failed) predictions is that Mother Nature didn't cooperate, once again proving that our climate is enormously complex and still capable of baffling the so-called smartest among us.

Update: Current Year-to-Date analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) AND Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global inactivity is at 33-year lows and historical where Typhoons form in the Western Pacific.

While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows! In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the lowest seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal*. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. See figure below for visual evidence of the past 40-years of tropical cyclone activity.

[From | Ryan Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update]