NOAA and Old Farmer's Almanac Duel

So who's going to be right? Will NOAA's warming-centric prediction--one that has been increasingly WRONG--hold true for the winter, or will the Old Farmer's Almanac (80-85% accuracy) win the day with its colder-than-normal winter? We've seen how NOAA has blown it over the past several years; the world has had DEADLY COLD winters since 2008, even though NOAA, NASA, and other AGW proponents of the "consensus" tried to prop up "warmest <fill-in-the-blank> on record" claims. All of this while story upon story touted record cold and winter events in China, Russia, United States, and many other places around the world.

Here's my prediction: OFA wins by a mile!

DUBLIN, N.H. – Most of the country will see a colder-than-usual winter while summer and spring will be relatively cool and dry, according to the time-honored, complex calculations of the "Old Farmer's Almanac."

[From Old Farmer's Almanac: Global cooling to continue - Yahoo! News]

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN OND 2010 FOR LARGE PARTS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES EXCLUDING THE PACIFIC COAST, THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND.  PROBABILITIES ARE GREATEST IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DUE PRIMARILY TO DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND LA NINA IMPACTS.  BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED RIGHT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF BELOW AVERAGE SSTS UP AND DOWN THE COAST.

[From Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook]

New Study Says Ice Melts Overestimated

And this story comes from a left-of-center news source, so one might come away with the feeling that AFP would prefer to soften the blow to the global warming faithful as much as possible, considering the strength of this data. I'm sure none of the other news organizations (like Reuters or AP) will pick this up, or they'll try to frame it in someway that continues to hold on to the pipedream of manmade global warming.

If scientists were wrong about this, and they were heavily involved in multiple recent climate scandals, and their predictions about climate calamities continue to falter, and their hurricane season predictions (in terms of strength and number) continue to be wrong, a thinking person needs to ask herself what else could "consensus" scientists have incorrect?

Climate: New study slashes estimate of icecap loss

PARIS (AFP) - - Estimates of the rate of ice loss from Greenland and West Antarctica, one of the most worrying questions in the global warming debate, should be halved, according to Dutch and US scientists.

In the last two years, several teams have estimated Greenland is shedding roughly 230 gigatonnes of ice, or 230 billion tonnes, per year and West Antarctica around 132 gigatonnes annually.

Together, that would account for more than half of the annual three-millimetre (0.2 inch) yearly rise in sea levels, a pace that compares dramatically with 1.8mm (0.07 inches) annually in the early 1960s.

CA Overstated Pollution by 340% to Pass Diesel Laws

Sounds amazingly like all the global warming scandals that have surfaced over the past two years. Please note everyone: Scientists (even "consensus" ones) are not infallible human beings; they have political inclinations which CAN AND DO (sometimes) bias their research.

Please don't fall for the arrogant liberal maxim that says normal, "uneducated" folk are unintelligent morons who can't think their way out of a paper sack. Common sense is sometimes useful in sniffing out the rats in one's science.

California grossly miscalculated pollution levels in a scientific analysis used to toughen the state's clean-air standards, and scientists have spent the past several months revising data and planning a significant weakening of the landmark regulation, The Chronicle has found.

The pollution estimate in question was too high - by 340 percent, according to the California Air Resources Board, the state agency charged with researching and adopting air quality standards. The estimate was a key part in the creation of a regulation adopted by the Air Resources Board in 2007, a rule that forces businesses to cut diesel emissions by replacing or making costly upgrades to heavy-duty, diesel-fueled off-road vehicles used in construction and other industries.

[From Overestimate fueled state's landmark diesel law]

Ted Turner: Global Warming a 'Survival Issue'

Good ol' commie Uncle Ted. He's just looking out for us. Yes, Ted, we have to pick our fights. And I choose to fight against you, your ilk, and your false fear mongering. Remember, Ted was the one who stated that global warming would turn us all into cannibals.

“I’ve worked all my life and I’m way too young to retire at 65, so I looked around for something to do and this looked like the most important area. It’s a survival issue for the human race, for life on the planet, so I decided to concentrate on it.

“It is a survival issue. We choose to do this because it is so important. Failure is not an option because if we fail here, it is just unthinkable. The consequences are just so great. We have to deal with this,” Turner said.

“We almost lost the bison in this country, and I dedicated part of my life to bringing the bison back. We have to pick our fights and fight hard and we can’t afford to lose this one,” he said.

[From Ted Turner blasts U.S. for once again sitting back on climate change « Colorado Independent]

2010 Cyclone Season Marks 33-Year LOW

Ever since Katrina in 2005 (a devastating hurricane season for sure), climatologists and various authorities on tropical weather have predicted "stronger than average" hurricane seasons. While the Atlantic season did appear active this year, no major storms hit the United States, even though there have been no shortage of cyclonic doom predictions since Katrina.

AccuWeather predicted the United States would be hit by five named storms in 2010; it didn't happen. And AccuWeather is one of these groups that peddles global warming nonsense. Previous seasonal predictions since 2005 have also failed to materialize.

And the oft blamed culprit for these dire predictions that don't materialize? You guessed it: manmade global warming.

The only problem with these silly (failed) predictions is that Mother Nature didn't cooperate, once again proving that our climate is enormously complex and still capable of baffling the so-called smartest among us.

Update: Current Year-to-Date analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) AND Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global inactivity is at 33-year lows and historical where Typhoons form in the Western Pacific.

While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows! In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the lowest seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal*. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. See figure below for visual evidence of the past 40-years of tropical cyclone activity.

[From coaps.fsu.edu | Ryan Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update]